When I finally caught my breath from laughing at Tony’s (tuff_fish) videos (mentioned in this post), I started to really think about what his biggest problems are. From my perspective, here are the major leaks in Tony’s game:
He’s playing way over his head. Many of the videos feature him playing $10/$20 NL yet I think he needs to move way down in limits and perfect his game a little more before playing up that high. More than a few of the people he’s playing with are top notch players who are taking money from him like candy from a baby.
He has zero hand reading ability. Okay, maybe not zero but I’m just watching the game and I can call his opponents cards a fairly high percentage of the time. Tony seems completely shocked at what gets turned over on the river. In the one hand I made fun of yesterday, he goes on to say something along the lines of “I have no idea why he didn’t bet the turn. Maybe he’s playing like a tight nit.” The fact that his opponent had a weak pair and an over card hit the board might have been the reason he slowed down on the turn. Even when he’s seen what his opponent has he’s so focused on what he would have liked to happen with the hand that he can’t see why his opponents played the hand the way they did.
Tony has no post-flop game. Zero. None. Zilch. He’s comically inaccurate at putting his opponents on the correct hands so he’s lost in every hand. When he should be protecting his hand he gives away free cards. When he should let his opponents catch up so they have something worth calling a bet with, he pushes them out of the pot with a massive overbet.
His pre-flop came could use some work too. I forget which video it is but he’s got two tables going and he folds KJo in the CO in an unraised pot but then raises with KJo on the other table UTG. Folks, these are in consecutive hands. Literally he folded the hand on one table and went to the other table and raised with the same two cards! He also has a tendency to make massive overbets with his premium hands, all but guaranteeing he’s not going to get any action.
I do have to say though that despite the above he seems to actually understand position and hand strength. I’ve seen him correctly toss away AJo to a raise from an EP player but for as many times as you see him make a good move like that he makes ten horrible pre-flop decisions because he’s so tilted.
He repeatedly misreads the board and/or his hand. This is another major reason he needs to move down in limits. He can’t even play his own hands. In one hand he almost missed the fact he had a straight and in another he folds a draw to the nut flush when his opponent puts out some meek probe bet giving him way the odds to peel another one off. It’s not that he didn’t know he had the odds, he didn’t realize he had the ace. He was pissing and moaning about not having a strong enough hand to call.
He suffers from fancy play syndrome. I’ve never seen one guy work himself into so many bad situations because he was trying to lay a trap. I mean, over and over and over again he tries to get fancy and his opponents take advantage of it to get cheap cards to draw out on him or they completely miss and walk away unscathed.
He has a strong tendency to play the donk bet. When he gets burned enough with misplayed traps he goes completely in the opposite direction and begins donk betting the flop when he hits. So let’s say he gets hammered misplaying a set a few hands ago, now he bets into the pre-flop raiser with his strong hand and his opponent lays it down.
He’s afraid of the continuation bet. Both executing it and calling it. He’ll bet big with AK and when an all rag flop hits he checks it to his opponent who . . . bets and takes down the pot with a bluff. When his opponent raises pre-flop and he catches a minor piece of the flop he lays down when the pre-flop raiser makes a continuation bet.
Probably because of his lack of post-flop game, his fear of continuation bets, etc. he plays many hands way too timidly. I’ve seen him raise pre-flop with a good pair, see a scary flop and check his hand all the way to the river. Of course, the comical ones are when his opponent missed the flop, turn, and then makes a better hand on the river. Even a weak bet on the flop or turn would have taken the pot down.
In general he has an uncanny skill of losing the most on his second best hands and winning the absolute minimum on his strong hands. He curses up a storm and tilts out of control while blaming everything on his opponents, the cards, his inability to hit a flop, etc. but when you really examine what he’s doing he’s usually his own worst enemy. Part of the comedy is that much of his commentary is correct. I think he actually could sit down and give a beginner excellent advice on how to play but the moment the adrenaline starts flowing he throws all of that out the window.
When you get over the comedy value of his play, watching the videos is actually an interesting learning tool. If you want to understand why someone donk bets, he’s the guy to teach you. If you want to really get inside the head of a guy who makes a 10x BB raise pre-flop with AA, he’s the guy to teach you. That may sound as if I’m being sarcastic but I’m dead serious. I think there’s a great deal you can learn by watching how bad players play. Even better if you have running commentary so you can actually hear what they’re thinking.
Of course, I wouldn’t recommend imitating his play or spending so much time analyzing his moves that you begin to put every opponent on being as big a donkey as he is but if you find yourself running into players who play like him, you have a huge advantage having gotten inside his head a bit.
Personally, I found myself acting like a kid at a horror flick. I’m yelling at my computer “No, no, fold!! He’s got a set, you idiot!” And if it wasn’t for horror flicks, I would have no clue how to deal with a one-eyed, razor backed, barbarian axe murderer chasing you through the forest.
Just for fun, let’s dissect Tony’s hand from yesterday’s post:
tuff_fish is UTG with 33 at a five handed table. tuff_fish limps. UTG+1 raises to $75. Everyone folds to tuff_fish who calls.
Pretty standard play here though calling with 33 UTG is somewhat debatable. Once he’s made the call, he’s pretty much committed to calling the raise though.
Flop comes 7s 8c 3c. tuff_fish checks, UTG+1 bests $120 into a $158 pot and tuff_fish calls.
Now with two clubs out there, I think the correct play is to raise. On a rare, rare occasion, and if I think I have a pretty good read on my opponent, I might just call here if I’m pretty damn sure my opponent doesn’t have two clubs in his hand. Like I said though, the standard move with a board that has the potential to get scary on the turn or river is to go ahead and let him bet and then raise to force him to lay down any draws. Donk betting into him is also a terrible play. If he has a hand like AK he’s unlikely to call a big bet on a board like that.
Turn is a Qs putting two flush draws on the board (spades and clubs). tuff_fish . . . . checks it.
The only, only, only way you can check this hand is if your opponent is such a maniac he’ll bet at anything. I had seen a few orbits at that table and his opponent had shown zero maniacal tendencies (well, except for this hand where he raised with T8s but we don’t know that yet ::grin::). And even then, when he bets, you come over the top and make a big enough bet that he has to fold anything other than the nuts.
There are 20 BB in the pot and that’s certainly a decent take for the hand. Seeing as how there are now two flush draws on the board, a little less than half the deck is a scare card for you on the river. Technically it’s probably more than half the deck since a 9 makes a straight if he has JT , 56, or T6 (though unlikely from a pre-flop raiser). And any 4 makes 56 a straight as well. Now, some of these holdings are unlikely given his pre-flop raise and bet on the flop but considering the fact he showed down T8s, JT would actually be a step up for him. ïŠ
The best, best case scenario for you is if the river is a red card that doesn’t complete a straight and you make a bet and your opponent calls with some big pair. I mean, when you run through all the possible scenarios more than a fair percent of them wind up with him folding with having put no more money into the pot on the river or a scare card hitting that causes both of you to freeze up and check it down. You’re basically letting him take a free shot at beating you with no downside for him since it won’t cost him any more money if he misses.
Some might make the case for a hand like AA, KK or some other big pocket pair but because you failed to raise the flop and find out where you stand you have no way to put him on those hands solidly enough to give it too much weight in your calculations. There are a lot of hands that can be played exactly as he has (AK, AJ, AT, etc) and if they all miss on the river he’s not putting any more money in the pot.
Given that board, my best guesstimate is that at least 80% of the time he slows down on the turn. If my guesstimate is anywhere near correct, checking to him isn’t laying a trap; it’s giving him a free shot at beating you.