Thailand Update

Funny story that is typical Bangkok:

A friend of mine wanted to catch a bite to eat and go up to Vertigo for drinks (she had never been before). There’s a Korean BBQ place up near my hotel so we met there for dinner.

We ordered some beef and they cooked it in the little cooker embedded in the center of the table. When the food was well cooked they remove the heat source and we feast away.

We were pretty far into the meal and had eaten most of the beef. I go over to snatch up a piece of the remaining beef and there’s a huge cockroach in the bowl in the center of the table munching down on my food. He wasn’t just huge. He was f-ing HUGE! After they removed the heat source he must have crawled up under the table and right through one of the heat vents into the cooking area. Or maybe he’s heat resistant. Who knows, this is Thailand.

I look up from the bowl, look at my friend, she looks looks at the bowl and we both look at each other with the OMFG look. She immediately calls for the check. In Thailand there’s no such thing as lodging a complaint and getting the meal for free or anything like that so that’s not even on the table as an option. Really the only thing to do is to pay the check and leave before you lose what you’ve already had of your meal.

I take out a napkin and she starts pleading with me not to kill it (Buddhist thing I guess). I laugh and tell her I’m not going to kill it. I spread the napkin out to it’s full size and drape it over the bowl so we don’t have to look at it while we wait for the check.

I paid the bill and when we left I suggested that instead of a taxi we just go get the cockroach and ride him over to Vertigo. For some reason she wasn’t amused.

Nice surprise:

I got a text message the other day from my good amigo Sander. He was in Bangkok for a few days before heading down to Phuket. We met up over on Silom at a pub downstairs from his hotel. Shot some pool, had some beers, and had a good time.

Next day we met up at Siam Paragon before heading over to MBK. We ended the night up on Sukhumvit (my territory) where we hit a few pool bars.

Sander just made it out of BKK airport before the protesters seized it. I got a text message from him indicating that he’s sunning himself down in Phuket. I wish I could join but . . . nothing is going into or out of Bangkok’s airports right now.

Coups and Airport Seizures

Big protests kicked off here this week. Anti-government forces which have been holding the main government building hostage since August decided to stage a final stand. The relatively unarmed protesters (mostly pipes and a pistol here and there) over-ran the old Don Muang airport and in the last few days have captured the new Suvarnabhumi airport meaning people can’t get out of BKK and most airlines refuse to fly into BKK either. The government’s stance seems to be to let them do what they want because they are doing more damage to their reputation than the government could ever do.

If the government came out and tried to put down the protests with force people would inevitably get hurt. The anti-government protesters would use that as an excuse to escalate their protests and gain sympathy from the Thai people. But the government keeps backing down on the use of force and letting the protesters look like uncompromising fools bent on destroying the country to get their way.

To date, the government’s plan has worked. Support for the anti-government protesters has dropped sharply. When they seized and closed down the main international airport in a country that relies heavily on tourism the anti-government protesters basically sent a message to Thais and the world that they are willing to devastate their own economy rather than sit down at a negotiating table and try to work things out. For them, it’s their way or the highway.

Many Thais who sympathized with them have since become repulsed by their willingness to go to the nuclear option (figuratively, not literally). This year was already shaping up to be down compared to last year in terms of tourism but to all but drive a stake through the heart of tourism in order to achieve cloudy political objectives doesn’t sit well the average Thai who directly or indirectly benefits from tourism in their country.

But as long as you don’t need to fly anywhere you wouldn’t even know any of this was going on. Sure it’s covered on the front page of all the local rags but the farang (foreigner) parts of town are so far removed from the protests that it hasn’t impacted anything here. Bars and nightclubs are packed every night. Shopping malls are full. Nothing is different unless you are at the government house (parliament) or trying to fly into or out of the country.

The heart of the problem here is a class war going on. The anti-government protesters essentially represent the elitists. And the current government is populist.

It’s really an interesting dynamic to watch. The anti-government PAD (People’s Alliance for Democracy) doesn’t actually believe in democracy. They think that the poor people are too dumb to vote so they want to take away the one person, one vote parliamentary style democracy and replace it with a parliamentary style democracy in which a controlling number of seats are appointed (I assume by the king). Guess who would be in those appointed seats? If you guessed the leaders of PAD then you get a nice big cookie.

The existing government basically figured out how to work the system. Since the vast, vast majority of people in Thailand live in poverty they campaigned on doing something for them. Farm loans, public works projects, etc. Not too surprisingly this worked and people voted for these candidates in overwhelming numbers.

Now I hope you can see the conflict here. If the government is pandering to all of those poor people who’s left to pander to the elite? The elite like being pandered to and nobody is listening to them. Out of that frustration the PAD was born. PADs only mission is to tear down the populist government in the hopes of re-writing the constitution in a way that guarantees them more power and the poor people with less. They want to return to the days when the military ran the country and they could use their connections and wealth to influence the government.

They were partially successful in 2006 when they convinced the military to stage a coup and topple the government run by Thaksin Shinawatra. The military re-wrote the constitution and they thought they had everything pretty much to their liking but those pesky poor people kept voting for people the elitists didn’t like and so here they are again pushing for another coup so they can get a second crack at re-writing the constitution and closing all those democratic loopholes that allow the common people to have a voice in government.

Now, don’t get me wrong, the current government is a sham too. Both the Thaksin Shinawatra government and the current government (which many claim is simply a puppet government being secretly run by Thaksin) run by his brother-in-law are first class scam artists. Both Thaksin and his wife have been found guilty of crimes and they are on the run from the Thai justice system. Thaksin temporarily returned to Thailand to clear his name but after his lawyers were caught on video trying to meet with the justices hearing his case carrying pastry boxes filled with cash Thaksin realized that he wasn’t going to be able to buy his way out of the mess and fled.

It seems like half the party is on trial for vote buying. Why you would buy votes when the people are voting for you overwhelmingly is beyond me. Government land being sold cheap to the PM laws being changed to avoid paying taxes . . . these guys do it all.

This whole deal at the airport is simply PAD trying to push the hand of the military. They’re trying to make it look like the current government is unable to manage the country which would mean that the military has no other option but to stage a coup and restore order.

Conferences and trade shows have already begun canceling their dates in Thailand. Tour booking agents have said that customer numbers have dropped through the floor. Hotels that normally see 60% – 80% occupancy rates this time of year are only 20% full. Major investors have pulled out or are putting projects on hold. There’s even talk that many airlines may be thinking about avoiding Bangkok as a major international hub due to the risk of having too many expensive planes on the ground in a country that seems politically unstable. Oh and that whole world-wide credit crunch isn’t helping things much either as a lot of jobs in Thailand are in factories producing parts and goods that are exported to the very same countries taking the biggest financial hits.

According to one source the potential tourism losses just through the end of the year could run as high as $4.2 billion – about 1.5% of the country’s GDP. And the Tourism Council of Thailand predicts that up to 20% of direct or indirect tourism jobs could vanish as a result.

The bottom line is that the government can no longer do nothing. They have to act. And if they don’t act the military will act for them. I don’t think anyone familiar with the situation would have ever imagined in their worst case scenario that PAD protesters would seize Bangkok’s two major airports. The cost in lost tourism and cargo has to be running into the millions of dollars a day. Worse yet is the damage being done to the reputation of Thailand.

I’ve talked with a few Thai people and whether they love or hate Thaksin they all seem to agree that this is horrible for their country. They are ashamed of the actions of PAD and angry that the government has allowed it to happen. Then again, I’m sure many of those same people would have been angry had the government violently put down the protests when they should have back when PAD took over the government building in August. It’s almost as if it had to play out this way in order for the people to be so disgusted that if several dozen people are killed re-taking the airport most Thais will feel that it was worth it.

Rumors amongst the expats here is that tanks are already maneuvering around Bangkok. Most are betting on a coup. Things could get real ugly if there is an attempt to re-take the airport. While not heavily armed the PAD has had three days to dig in. They’ve already blocked roads into and out of the main airport with water trucks and debris as well as putting up barbed wire perimeters within the airport.

According to the press the Thai PM has asked for supporters to block the main roads into and out of Bangkok in the event that the military attempts a coup. The military claims that it does not think a coup is the right course of action but the head of the army made a statement that he thought that the situation could be resolved if the government dissolved and held new elections.

Personally that sounds like an asinine solution. It would defuse the immediate situation but all that would happen is that new elections would be held, the people would elect a government that looks pretty much like the current one, and PAD would start protesting again.

All that being said, it’s 100% safe here. My plans for the evening are to go meet up with some friends on soi 22 for a party. We’ll probably close that place and hit a few nightclubs. In Thailand, not even a coup or rumors of a coup can stop people from having fun. 🙂